**MODELING AND PREDICTING URBAN MALE
POPULATION OF ****BANGLADESH****: EVIDENCE
FROM CENSUS DATA**

Department of Population Science and Human Resource Development, E-mail: |
E-mail: rabiul.beg@jcu.edu.au |

**Abstract.**

This paper predicts the
urban male population of _{} this article
constructed shrinkage coefficient which determines the adequacy of the first
stage predicted values. These predicted values are then used in the second
stage to estimate the geometric growth rate for different age groups. Finally, considering year 2001 urban male
population as the base period and using the estimated geometric growth rate of
the second stage the predictions of the urban male populations are computed for
2002 through to 2031.

**Key words:** Urban population, linear forecast model, negative
exponential forecast model, nonlinear least square estimation, geometric growth
rate, cross validity predictive power (CVPP),_{}, shrinkage

**International eJournal of
Mathematics and Engineering**

Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 86-95